【Perez公器私用練英文077】歐冠聯賽階段即將戲劇收尾—局勢分析
Champions League set for dramatic finale - how it stands
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| cc0圖片，來自這裡 |
原文網址：https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/c17gn9vde8lo
發佈時間：2025/01/22
原文作者：BBC編輯團隊
The inaugural Champions League league phase is set for an exciting final day with 25 of the 36 teams still awaiting their fate.
走馬上任的歐冠「聯賽階段」，將在36隊之中的25隊，仍在等待命運降臨的態勢之下，迎來一個緊張刺激的收官日。
如果你對歐冠賽制完全是不懂喔，前情閱讀：【Perez公器私用練英文047】(241002更新)歐冠籤表怎麼抽？
All 18 games will be played at the same time - at 20:00 GMT on Wednesday, 29 January, with 16 matches having something on the line.
18場比賽將在1月29日(週三)英國時間八點同時進行，其中16場比賽將會牽動局勢。
Manchester City are in major danger of elimination after Wednesday's collapse at Paris St-Germain, while Liverpool are through, Arsenal are almost there and Aston Villa and Celtic - who meet - are somewhere in between.
在週三面對巴黎聖日耳曼潰敗的曼城，現在在淘汰邊緣命懸一線；同時利物浦、阿森納已經幾乎確定晉級，而阿斯頓維拉與凱爾特人—兩者會直接對決—則還在晉級未定之天。
The 'as it stands' table will be constantly updating with teams' hopes potentially relying on other results.
排名「現狀」也將會滾動更新，隨著各隊的希望都被掌握在其他比賽結果的手中。
It marks the first season of the new format, compared with the old four-team groups with two going through - where sometimes there was nothing to play for by the end.
新制第一季，對比著舊制的四隊取前兩名——有時候最後一場只是無意義比賽——的小組賽，彰顯出了差異所在。
"It's been brilliant, instead of the borefest we've had for years on the last matchday," wrote ex-Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher on social media.
前利物浦後衛傑米卡拉格在社群媒體上寫道：「這賽制很精湛，取代了行之有年的最後一個比賽日的無趣。」
"Next week will be sensational."
「下禮拜會很扣人心弦。」
How many teams qualify for the knockout phase?
幾隊會打入淘汰賽階段？
First, here's a reminder of what the 36 league-phase teams are aiming for.
首先提醒一下，這是36隊聯賽制在瞄準的目標。
Those finishing in the top eight automatically progress to the last 16, where they will be seeded.
聯賽結束後，前八名會自動晉級為前十六強的種子隊。
They will await the winners of eight two-legged knockout play-off ties featuring the clubs ranked from ninth to 24th.
他們會靜待由第9名到第24名組成的八組兩腿制淘汰季後賽的贏家出線。
Those finishing between ninth and 16th will be seeded and face a team placed 17th to 24th, with the advantage of playing the second leg at home.
而在第9到第16名之間作收的隊伍，將帶著第二腿於主場比賽的優勢，面對第17到24名的隊伍。
The clubs 25th or lower are eliminated and do not gain entry to the Europa League.
25名以下的球隊，將被淘汰，並不會降轉歐霸。
The play-off ties take place mid-February, with the last-16 matches in the first two weeks of March.
季後賽將在二月中開打，而最後留下的十六隊，將在三月前兩週開打十六強賽。
Which teams have qualified - and who is out?
哪些球隊確定晉級，哪些球隊出局了？
Top-eight guaranteed: Liverpool, Barcelona
確定前8名：利物浦、巴薩隆納
Top-24 guaranteed (at least): Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, Brest, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, Celtic
至少前24名：阿森納、國際米蘭、馬德里競技、AC米蘭、亞特蘭大、勒沃庫森、阿斯頓維拉、摩納哥、飛燕諾、里爾、比斯特、多特蒙德、拜仁慕尼黑、皇家馬德里、尤文圖斯、賽爾提克
Uncertain of progression: PSV, Club Brugge, Benfica, PSG, Sporting, Stuttgart, Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb, Shakhtar Donetsk
淘汰未明區：PSV、布魯日、本菲卡、巴黎聖日耳曼、葡萄牙體育、斯圖加特、曼城、札布羅格帝納摩、頓內次克礦工
Eliminated: Bologna, Sparta Prague, Leipzig, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Sturm Graz, Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys
確定淘汰區：波隆那、斯巴達布拉格、RB萊比錫、吉羅納、布萊格勒紅星、格拉茲風暴、薩爾茲堡、斯諾萬、年輕人
Champions League table: Who has the best chance of qualifying with one round to go?
歐冠聯賽積分榜：下回合，誰有最高的晉級機會？
Opta Predictions 由Opta預測
What do the British teams need to go through?
大英球隊現在需要做些什麼？
Manchester City have a very simple permutation. If they beat Club Brugge at home they will go into the play-off round. If they fail to win they will be eliminated.
曼城局勢一翻兩瞪眼。如果他們在主場打敗布魯日，就能晉級季後賽。不行就被淘汰。
They cannot reach the last 16 automatically.
他們無法爭取到自動晉級前八名的席次。
Aston Villa are guaranteed at least a play-off place.
阿斯頓維拉確定會有一個季後賽席次。
A win at home to Celtic would give them a good chance of finishing in the top eight, though they would need one of five teams above them to slip up.
主場贏下塞爾提克能夠為晉級前八更多一線機會，雖然會需要壓在它頭上的其中五隊之一自己吞了敗。
But also four teams are only below Villa on goal difference so a big win for one of those sides could see them overtake Villa too.
但於此同時，落後維拉的四隊只輸在進球數，故他們若有隊伍獲得一場大勝，也能夠反過來超車維拉。
Celtic are only one point behind Villa so could conceivably finish in the top eight, but they would need to win and for a lot of things to happen above them.
塞爾提克一分落後維拉，所以以前八名作收也能想見，但首先他們要先贏下比賽，並且現行排名在它之前的隊伍需要發生一連串的蝴蝶效應。
Arsenal - away at Girona - are all but in the last 16 as they sit three points clear of the play-offs with a much better goal difference than any team on 13 points.
要客場遠征吉羅那的阿森納，以3個積分、還有跟其他13積分的球隊有著更多更好的淨勝球差異之距，確保了自己會在十六強賽登場。
Liverpool are one of two teams, along with Barcelona, who know they are in the last 16 already, and will be guaranteed a top-two place.
利物浦是跟巴薩羅那共同確定會在前十六強，而且前者保證會在前兩名。
Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are among the giants in the positions between ninth and 24th hoping for things to go their way to end up in the top eight.
拜仁慕尼黑與皇家馬德里是9~24名之間的大魔王，並且期盼著事事都能順風順水，讓他們最後能在前八名席次結束。
Does it matter where you finish in top eight?
我在前八名的哪個席次會有關係嗎？
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| 新制下的比賽樹狀圖。由BBC製圖 |
Definitely.
絕對會有。
Where a team finishes in the league table determines which opponents they face and when they can face them in the knockout stage.
球隊在聯賽排名榜座落哪個位置，決定了他們要面對的對手，並且在淘汰賽的什麼時候會遇到他們。
Take Liverpool for example. The Reds are now guaranteed a top-two finish, which gives them a seeded route through to the last 16.
以利物浦為例。紅軍現在保證了前兩名收官，給了他們晉級前十六強的種子隊途徑。
That means the Reds will face a team who finished 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the last 16.
這代表著紅軍將會在十六強賽面對第15~18名之間作收的隊伍。
The identity of the team will not be known until after the play-offs, but the pre-determined draw means it will be the winner of the ties involving teams that finish in those four places.
到底是哪一支球隊則要在季後賽打完才知道，但預先決定好的座次，表示那會是季後賽系列賽在該四隊中脫穎而出的勝者。
Liverpool cannot face the team who finishes second in the league phase - or whoever finishes top if they are overtaken on the final matchday - until the final.
而直到決賽前，利物浦對不到聯賽階段第二名的隊伍——或取代在最後一個比賽日殺出取代第二名的隊伍。
By contrast, a team that finishes seventh or eighth could face a side that had finished just below them in the league phase - in ninth or 10th.
相較而言。在七、八名結束的球隊，可能面對在聯賽階段排名僅稍稍低於他們的球隊——第九或第十名。
For more on who plays who in the play-offs, keep reading...
想知道更多誰跟誰在季後賽狹路相逢，請繼續鎖定......
What is the difference between finishing ninth and 24th?
第9名跟第24名的差異何在？
Teams that finish between ninth and 16th will be seeded in the knockout phase play-off draw.
在第9~16名的球隊，會做為季後淘汰賽種子隊。
It means they will face a team that finishes between 17th to 24th.
代表著他們將會面對第17~24名的球隊。
Who the seeded teams will face will be determined by a draw but clubs will only have two possible opponents.
種子隊伍面對的隊伍，將取決於抽籤，但只會有兩個可能的選項。
For example, the teams that finish 11th and 12th are paired together and will play a team that finishes 21st or 22nd.
舉例而言，在第11或12名的球隊抽籤時會被視為一組，並且與第21或22名的球隊之一比賽。
Another bracket will pair the teams that finish ninth and 10th in the table, playing either the team that was 23rd or 24th.
另一方面，第9、10名的球隊之一，會跟第23、24名之一的隊伍抽籤捉對廝殺。
The two pairs of fixtures will be drawn into opposite halves of the overall draw and the seeded teams will play the second leg of the play-off at home as a reward for finishing higher than their opponent in the league phase.
這兩組對戰組合，會在整個比賽樹狀圖抽到相對的上下半場，並且作為聯賽階段排名較對手高的獎勵，種子隊將會在第二腿季後賽於自己比賽。
Unlike in previous years, teams eliminated from the Champions League - either in the group phase or via losing a play-off - will not drop into the Europa League.
與先前不同，從歐冠比賽被淘汰的球隊—不管是小組賽還是季後賽—都不會降級去歐霸比賽。
The draw for the play-off round is on 31 January at 11:00 GMT.
季後賽抽籤將在1/31 大英時間11:00進行。
Has this format worked? 這一套賽制有帶來改變嗎？
One of Uefa's reasons for changing to this format was so "every game counts".
歐足總改變賽制的原因之一，是讓「每場比賽都有影響」。
It said the format "will ensure that any result has the potential to dramatically change a team's position, right up to and including the very last matchday".
他們表示新賽制「將能確保任何賽果都有能戲劇性翻轉球隊排名的可能，從當下到最後最後的比賽日。」
And so it has panned out with only two dead rubbers (Sturm Graz v Leipzig and Young Boys v Red Star Belgrade) and 16 games with something on the line.
故此，最後它端上桌的只有兩場消化試合(格拉茲風暴vRB萊比錫、年輕人v布爾格勒紅星)，與16場會影響走勢的比賽。
There are several games where both clubs are battling for the same goal, like Manchester City v Club Brugge, Stuttgart v PSG, Brest v Real Madrid and Inter Milan v Monaco.
而其中有幾場比賽，兩支球隊在為了相同目標而戰，諸如曼城對布魯日、斯圖加特對巴黎聖日耳曼、比斯特對皇家馬德里、國際米蘭對摩納哥。
It could lead to enjoyable mayhem for fans with some teams potentially being affected by more than 10 other games. Aston Villa, for example, could overtake six teams or be overtaken by 15 teams (albeit not all 15) - including opponents Celtic.
對球迷而言，這將會因為某些球隊潛在地會被超過十場比賽影響最後賽果，引出很有娛樂性的混亂局面。以阿斯頓維拉為例，有可能上篡六支隊伍或被十五支隊伍篡位(儘管不是十五支隊伍都能同時逆襲)——也包括了他們的對手塞爾提克。
Another reason Uefa gave for the new format was to ensure more matches between the top teams in the initial stages of the tournament.
歐足聯給出要用新賽制的另一個原因，是確保頂級球隊之間在大賽初期就有著更多的比賽。
This year has seen Real Madrid face Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool in repeats of three recent finals, and Barcelona play Bayern Munich, while Paris St-Germain have faced Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester City.
今年已經看到了近三次歐冠決賽重演——皇馬面對多特蒙德與利物浦、巴薩羅納與拜仁慕尼黑比賽、同時巴黎面對過阿森納、馬德里競技、拜仁慕尼黑與曼城。
How many points are needed to qualify?
幾分能夠讓你晉級？
聯賽階段最後積分：
- 7分：1%晉級季後賽
- 8分：13%晉級季後賽
- 9分：42%晉級季後賽
- 10分：94%晉級季後賽
- 11分：100%晉級季後賽
- 12分：100%晉級季後賽
- 13分：100%晉級季後賽
- 14分：98%晉級季後賽，2%晉級前8名
- 15分：74%晉級季後賽，26%晉級前8名
- 16分：13%晉級季後賽，87%晉級前8名
- 17分：1%晉級季後賽，99%晉級前8名
- 18分：100%晉級前8名
What is financial impact of finishing where?
排名在哪會有什麼財政影響？
Failing to qualify for the next round means taking a financial hit.
在晉級下一輪的路上鎩羽而歸，將意味著帶來財政的打擊。
Every club in the league phase gets 18.62m euros for participating, with performance bonuses of 2.1m euros per win and 700,000 euros per draw.
每支球隊在聯賽階段出賽就會有1862萬歐元的獎金，每贏一場比賽會再賺到210萬歐元，平手則會拿到70萬。
Each position in the table is worth 275,000 euros, too. So the team that finishes 36th earns that much, 35th claims 550,000 euros through to 9.9m euros for the table-toppers.
每個排名差距都關乎27.5萬歐元。故第36名收尾的球隊會賺到這個數字(27.5萬歐元)，35名能拿55萬歐元，一路挺進到聯賽階段冠軍的990萬歐元。
Teams finishing first to eighth also earn a 2m euros bonus, with teams finishing ninth to 16th getting 1m euros.
前8名隊伍會再賺到200萬歐元獎金，第9~16名將會賺到100萬獎金。
The prize money for reaching each knockout round is shown below.
各輪賽事的晉級獎金如下表。
Uefa has also introduced a "value pillar" that splits the broadcast revenue. This again increases depending on your finishing position in the league phase.
歐足聯也引進了「價值平權」來分配轉播權價值。這再次增近了你在聯賽階段打到哪個位置的重要度。
That is before matchday revenue and other factors are taken into account.
這是考慮到比賽日收入與其他因素造就的結果。
In other words, it is fairly costly to be eliminated early.
換句話說，越早出局，賽果就會耗資越多。
Champions League knockouts prize money
歐冠淘汰賽獎金
(由BBC整理歐足聯數據)
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