Big data: Carlo Ancelotti and Real Madrid
大數據：安切洛帝與皇馬
原文網址：https://www.coachesvoice.com/cv/big-data-carlo-ancelotti-real-madrid-jude-bellingham/
時間：2023/09/06
記者：The Coaches' Voice (未署名)
CARLO ANCELOTTI
Real Madrid, 2021–
卡羅安切洛帝
皇家馬德里, 2021—
The 2023/24 season has brought with it a change of system for Carlo Ancelotti and Real Madrid. With the departure of long-time number nine Karim Benzema, the team’s traditional recent 4-3-3 shape has been discarded in favour of a 4-3-1-2 in which Vinícius Júnior has been pushed into a central-forward role from wide on the left. The exciting Jude Bellingham, a summer arrival from Borussia Dortmund, has been deployed as the number 10.
23/24賽季帶來了安切洛帝跟皇馬系統性的改變。在長期的9號球員卡林本澤馬遠走之後，球隊捨棄了傳統的4-3-3打法並轉為鍾情把維尼修斯從整個左邊鋒推上前鋒位的4-3-1-2。夏天從多特蒙德來投，被部署為十號位的貝林漢姆，則是這些變化最大的興奮點。
A shift in approach is nothing new for an experienced operator like Ancelotti, however.
然而，對於像安切洛帝這樣有經驗的主導者，踢法的大風吹倒不是什麼新鮮事。
“At Juventus, with Zinedine Zidane, I began to understand that it is better to adapt to the players,” the four-time Champions League-winning coach has said about his system-players dynamic. “When I started coaching, I had a clear idea and I didn’t adapt. At Parma, Roberto Baggio wanted to play as a number 10, and I didn’t change the system. He went to another team. I was wrong, so I started to adapt – and I’m still adapting.”
「在有著席丹的尤文圖斯，我開始懂得配合球員比較好的，」歐冠四冠教頭這樣評斷他體系內球員的爆炸性表現：「當我開始執教時，我的想法一直線但不知變通。在帕爾馬，巴吉歐想打十號位，但我沒有做出調整，導致了他前往別支球隊。我意識到了自己錯誤，所以我開始懂得配合球員——直到現在我也持續適應調整中。」
It is now more than a quarter of a century since Baggio chose Bologna over Ancelotti’s Parma, since when the Italian has employed a number of different systems to impressively consistent effect. Here, we take a look at some of his key systems, analyse the data of his most recent two years at Real, and assess what impact that might have on his revised approach for 2023/24.
巴吉歐割捨安切洛帝的帕爾馬進而選擇波羅納已經超過二十五年。從那時起義大利人(安切洛帝)就採用了一連串不同的球隊系統獲得持之以恆的優異成績。現在讓我們來看看他系統裏的幾張王牌，並分析近兩年皇馬的數據，來看看他在23/24賽季的調動會帶來什麼影響。
The main formations, 1999-2013
1999-2013的主要陣型
Ancelotti was a strong believer in the 4-4-2 system in his early days as a head coach. It was during his two years at Juventus, between 1999 and 2001, that he switched to the 4-3-2-1 shape – often known as the Christmas tree – that worked to maximise the impact of Zidane. Results were good, but not good enough – in two full seasons, Juve finished Serie A runners-up to first Lazio and then Roma.
安切洛帝作為總教練的早期是4-4-2根深蒂固的信徒。1999-2001的兩年尤文圖斯生涯，他轉而使用4-3-2-1–更以「聖誕樹」之名為人所知–去把席丹的影響力最大化。效果固然是好，可惜還不夠好——這兩個賽季拉齊奧、羅馬分別奪冠，尤文圖斯在義甲都只獲得亞軍。
That system did come good for Ancelotti during an eight-year spell at AC Milan that yielded eight major trophies, including the 2003/04 Serie A title and Champions League wins in 2003 and 2007. That team was ruled from the midfield by the legendary Andrea Pirlo.
在安切洛帝於AC米蘭8年拿下8個重要賽事冠軍的執教時期，這套系統獲得出色的發揮。包含03/04賽季的義甲冠軍與2003、2007年的歐冠冠軍，這支球隊是被傳奇中場Andrea Pirlo所梳理。
From Serie A, the Italian moved to a very different challenge, in the Premier League as head coach of Chelsea. In his first season there, 2009/10, he inherited a squad that featured two world-class attacking midfielders with similar qualities. Both Frank Lampard and Michael Ballack had box-to-box virtues, but both were much more effective in attacking situations. As a solution, Ancelotti brought in John Obi Mikel to play behind the pair in a 4-1-2-1-2 formation. Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka operated as the two forwards in a team that won the Premier League and FA Cup.
從義甲賽場到英超切爾西總教練，義大利人轉頭迎向很不一樣的挑戰。09/10賽季，也就是他在那裡的第一個賽季，他承接了兩個球隊裡有著差不多實力的世界級攻擊中場。蘭帕德與巴拉克都有著全能中場的屬性，但兩人都是在進攻狀態更加出色的球員。作為解方，安切洛蒂引入了John Obi Mikel(Perez編注：防守中場)在這對拍檔後掩護並改打4-1-2-1-2陣型。德羅巴與安尼爾卡則作為藉此贏得英超冠軍與足總盃的雙鋒組合。
Two years in the Premier League were followed by two more in Ligue 1, as head coach of a Paris Saint-Germain squad full of attacking players better suited to a more vertical style. Ancelotti turned to the 4-2-3-1 formation, in which Javier Pastore operated mostly as the number 10 in an attacking line of three behind the forward. Two of Ezequiel Lavezzi, Lucas Moura, Nenê and Jérémy Ménez played in the wider positions, with Kevin Gameiro as the nine in Ancelotti’s first season. In the second, that became Zlatan Ibrahimovic – the league title duly followed.
緊接在兩年英超職涯後的是兩年的法甲職涯。安切洛帝作為球隊裡堆滿攻擊手的PSG總教練，最好要去適應更直線的打法。安切洛帝的第一個賽季，轉而改打由Javier Pastore在攻擊三叉戟後作為十號位運作的4-2-3-1陣型。 Ezequiel Lavezzi、Lucas Moura、Nenê and Jérémy Ménez四取二在左右兩邊，Kevin Gameiro則作為九號位(正中鋒)。第二個賽季伊布來了以後，聯賽冠軍就自來排排站了。
Real Madrid and beyond, 2013-2021
2013-2021，皇馬安一期與後繼球隊
In June 2013, Ancelotti landed for his first spell at Real Madrid. He replaced José Mourinho, who had built a team set up to attack mainly through transitions – and even more so with the arrival that summer of Gareth Bale from Tottenham.
2013年6月，安切洛帝登陸皇馬首度執教。他承接了透過攻守轉換作為主要攻擊手段來建隊的穆里尼奧，甚至順應夏天從熱刺來的貝爾更加強了此節。
Ancelotti settled on a 4-3-3 formation that offered him less defensive control but suited explosive wide attackers such as Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo – both of whom scored in the 2014 Champions League final victory over neighbours Atlético (below). Behind the front three, the manager relied mostly on Ángel Di María – a winger converted into a number eight – Sami Khedira, Luka Modric and Xabi Alonso. This 4-3-3 could easily shift into a 4-4-2, with Ronaldo joining Karim Benzema on the front line and Bale playing on the left in a midfield line of four.
安切洛帝以4-3-3陣型排兵，這讓他減少了防守的控制力度，但更契合貝爾或C羅這樣爆炸性的邊路攻擊手—這兩位都在2014對陣鄰居馬德里競技的歐冠決賽取得了進球。
Alonso was once more a key player in Ancelotti’s single season at Bayern Munich, in 2016/17. There, he played as the single pivot in another 4-3-3, with the likes of Thiago Alcántara and Arturo Vidal operating in front of him. The front three will be remembered as one of Bayern’s most iconic attacking units: Arjen Robben and Franck Ribéry either side of the prolific Robert Lewandowski.
16/17賽季，阿隆索一度是安切洛帝在拜仁慕尼黑唯一賽季的關鍵球員。他在那裡作為另外一個4-3-3陣型的單核心，伴隨著像Thiago Alcántara、Arturo Vidal在他前面運作。三個前場球員則作為拜仁最有象徵性的攻擊組合被人銘記：羅貝里連線分別在進球豐產的萊萬多夫斯基兩側。
After spells at huge clubs with a wealth of squad depth, Ancelotti went on to manage two famous clubs with more modest budgets: Napoli (2018-2019) and Everton (2019-2021). With both teams, he reverted to his origins as a 4-4-2 coach, favouring the extra defensive security afforded by a double pivot in midfield and more functional attack.
在數次帶領球員庫深度極深的豪門後，安切洛帝前往執教兩個有名但預算更為中等的俱樂部：18/19賽季的拿坡里與19~21年的艾佛頓。兩支隊伍他都回歸他4-4-2教練的初心，愛用著藉由中場雙核心支應加上更公式化的進攻，來加倍鞏固防守。
Back to Real, and back to the 4-3-3
回歸皇馬與回歸4-3-3
Ancelotti’s tactical adaptability tends to focus only on the front half of his teams, however. Throughout his long coaching career, he has stayed almost entirely loyal to a back four and at least one deeper-lying or organisational pivot – Pirlo, Mikel, Alonso – to balance both phases of the game. His system changes are influenced almost entirely by the players in the midfield and attacking lines.
然而，安切洛帝的戰術性調整，傾向只聚焦都在隊伍的前半部。綜觀他長期的執教生涯，他對四後衛陣型近乎全面表忠，與至少一個拖後中場或組織核心—像Pirlo、Mikel、Alonso—來達到比賽中的攻守平衡。他的系統調整近乎完全是被中場、前場球員影響。
None of this has changed in the Italian’s second spell at Real, where he returned in the summer of 2021. He has retained the back four and the team’s renowned midfield playmakers in Luka Modric and Toni Kroos.
這2021夏天的回歸，義大利人在皇馬的二次執教也依然不變。他維持了四後衛與隊伍裏著名的中場組織核心莫德里奇與克羅斯。
In his first two seasons back, he set his team up almost exclusively in a 4-3-3 formation. Across those two years, the team started in that shape just under 90 per cent of the time (below). In the 2022/23 season, only two teams exceeded that number for starting in the same shape: Real Betis under Manuel Pellegrini, who started in the 4-2-3-1 in 97 per cent of their fixtures; and Barcelona under Xavi, whose own 4-3-3 shape started 92 per cent of games.
回首前兩個賽季，他把球隊打造為極度地向4-3-3陣型靠攏。那兩年球隊有近九成的時間都以這個陣型來打(如下圖統計)。22/23賽季，只有兩支隊伍有這麼高比例的相同陣型先發：佩公轄下的皇家貝提斯，4-2-3-1先發了97%的組合；跟哈維轄下92%比賽以4-3-3首發的巴薩。
Across 2021/22 and 2022/23, Real only won three games in which they started with a different formation. Two of those were league games: against Valencia, when Ancelotti employed a 4-4-1-1, and Celta Vigo, with a 4-4-2. The third was a more famous and dramatic win – against Manchester City in the second leg of the 2022 Champions League semi final, when Karim Benzema and Vinícius Júnior played as a front two in a 4-4-2.
橫跨21/22到22/23賽季，皇馬在擺不同陣型先發下只贏過三場比賽。兩場是聯賽比賽，安切洛帝排兵4-4-1-1對戰瓦倫西亞，與打塞爾塔維戈的4-4-2。第三場就是更加馳名、更戲劇性的勝利—2022年歐冠四強第二腿對戰曼城的比賽，當時本澤馬跟維尼修斯作為4-4-2的雙前場。
Of course, the 4-3-3 doesn’t always have to look exactly the same. Ancelotti’s history with the formation is to play with two wide attackers either side of a central forward, with two number eights and a pivot behind them. But it is the players within this system that can dictate a team’s style of play. A front three featuring Benzema between Vinícius and Fede Valverde, for example, would have felt quite different with Rodrygo on the right instead of Valverde. The latter offers more structure and a greater organisation, with Rodrygo offering greater attacking flair.
當然，4-3-3也不必次次看起來相同。安切洛帝過去如此佈陣，是讓兩個邊路攻擊手分別在中鋒兩側伺應，加上在他們身後安排兩個八號位跟一個支點核心。但是這套系統裡的球員，才是真正主宰球隊風格的人。舉個例子，本澤馬與兩側的維尼修斯、巴爾韋德作為三前場，羅德里戈取代巴爾韋德在右邊路是很不一樣的。後者(巴爾韋德)帶來了陣型上更多的結構變化與更好的組織性，而羅德里戈帶來的是兩翼更強的攻擊力。
In-game changes 賽中調度
Ancelotti has often been accused of passivity when it comes to in-game changes, whether in terms of shape or substitutions. At any given time, goes the criticism, he has his preferred shape and his preferred players. The data doesn’t necessarily back this up, however.
安切洛帝也經常在比賽中調度造成效果，無論是透過陣型還是換人。他有著他喜愛的陣型跟球員，時時刻刻都存有批評，然而純粹資料(有喜愛的陣型與換人)並沒能為此(賽中調度)背書。
Across the two major competitions – La Liga and the Champions League – in his first two seasons back at Real, he made three substitutions or more in a minimum of 69 per cent of games (above). In other words, the Italian coach is trying to influence his team’s play through in-game changes in two out of three games at the very least.
橫跨兩個大型競技賽事—西甲跟歐冠—在他回歸皇馬的兩個賽季，至少有69%的比賽他會進行三人或以上的輪換(如上圖)。換句話說，這位義大利教練最少最少在2/3的比賽，試著透過賽中調度影響球隊的踢法。
Attacking data攻擊數據
So, how did all of this translate to performance and results in Ancelotti’s first two seasons back in his second spell at Real?
所以，上述這些如何轉換為安二期前兩季的表現跟結果？
The first point of interest is that the team tends to enjoy the majority of possession in most of its games – but not to the same extent as some of Europe’s most dominant possession teams. Across the three major competitions (La Liga, Champions League and Copa Del Rey), Real dominated possession in just under 75 per cent of their games; but they only hit more than 60 per cent possession in 45 per cent of their games.
有趣的第一點是，這支球隊在大部分的比賽，傾向擁有大量球權——但跟某些歐洲控球率霸主不在同一個尺度上。橫跨三大重要賽事(西甲/歐冠/國王盃)，皇馬在他們75%的比賽統治了控球，但他們只在45%的比賽中控球率超過60%
This has been a team that doesn’t need to dominate the ball to win big games, however. In the 2021/22 Champions League knockout stages, they eliminated opponents despite having less possession: 45.7 per cent in the last 16 against Paris Saint-Germain, 43.8 per cent against Chelsea in the quarter finals, and 40.8 per cent against Manchester City in the semi finals.
然而，這是一隻不需要靠著統治球(權)贏得比賽的隊伍。21/22歐冠淘汰賽，儘管他們控球率較低，仍是淘汰了對手們：十六強對陣PSG的控球率是43.7%、八強對切爾西43.8%、四強對曼城則是40.8%。
The key to the 2021/22 version of Ancelotti’s Real Madrid was to be as efficient as possible with the possession and opportunities they had. It worked, as they won both La Liga and the Champions League. In 2022/23, however, one key statistic tells a slightly different story.
21/22年的安式奈美惠(X)皇馬(O)的關鍵是讓盡可能高效的利用控球率跟機會。然而在22/23年，一項關鍵數據闡述了一個稍稍不一樣的內幕。
Across the three main competitions – they won the Copa Del Rey, but lost out in the bigger two – they exceeded their expected goals in only 48 per cent of games. This was a significant drop from the 59 per cent they registered the previous season. In short, the team had become less efficient in their attacking play.
橫跨三大重要賽事—他們贏得了國王盃，但輸掉了較大的兩項賽事—他們僅在48%的比賽打入了超過他們的預期進球。對他們上一季在59%(的比賽)達成這件事，這是顯而易見的下滑。簡言之，隊伍的進攻打法不再這麼有效了。
The Bellingham impact貝林漢姆效應
For the 2023/24 season, Ancelotti didn’t only have to reverse the statistical trend of the previous campaign; he also had to do it without Benzema. The Frenchman’s move to Al-Ittihad in the Saudi Pro League left Real without a recognised number nine in the mould of their legendary striker.
23/24賽季，安切洛帝不只需要扭轉上賽季數據統計(的下滑)，還需要在沒有本澤馬的情況完成這件事。法國人前往沙烏地職業聯賽吉達聯合，留下皇馬在一眾傳奇射手楷模中，少了一個能被記得的九號。
Benzema wasn’t only the team’s chief goalscorer; he was also the player through whom the team linked mostly in attack. With him gone, and the returning veteran Joselu more of a penalty-box forward, Ancelotti has once again had to adapt his system to suit the players at his disposal.
本澤馬不只是隊伍裡的主要得分者，他也同樣是球隊在攻擊線上連結的媒介球員。伴隨他的離開，與更像禁區型前鋒的老將荷塞魯回到皇馬，安切洛帝再一次的調整他的系統來契合他可用的球員。
Step forward Jude Bellingham (below). The exciting young Englishman, signed for an initial €103m from Borussia Dortmund in the summer, is an attacking-minded central midfielder who scored 14 goals in all competitions in the 2022/23 season. It remains to be seen whether he will match those numbers in his debut season in La Liga, but a record of five goals in his first four league appearances for Madrid suggests it’s more likely than not.
把裘德貝林漢姆前置。這個出采的英格蘭小伙子，以1.03億的簽約金這夏天從多特蒙德而來。他在西甲的第一個賽季是被預設為看看是否能夠撐起他的號碼（5），但四場聯賽為馬德里獲得五顆進球的紀錄被視為更偏向肯定的答案。
Crucially, Ancelotti is using Bellingham as the number 10 in his newly adapted 4-3-1-2 shape. In effect, this places the 20-year-old at the top of a midfield diamond, behind a front two of Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo.
關鍵的是，安切洛帝在他新調整的4-3–1-2陣型，將貝林漢姆作為10號位使用。這項調整把這個20歲球員置於菱形中場的鑽前端，在維尼修斯與羅德里哥兩位前場身後。
The new-look attack will need to find goals. In the last two seasons, Benzema scored 75 and Vinícius 45 – their combined total of 120 accounted for 48.7 per cent of the team’s total of 246, with Benzema alone accounting for more than 30 per cent.
這個進攻新氣象需要去尋找進球。近兩個賽季，本則馬進了75顆球、維尼修斯45顆球--他們加起來的120顆進球，承包了全隊總計246顆進球的48.7%，並且本澤馬自己就包辦了30%以上的進球。
The team might also need to increase its share of possession, which should enable them to build more attacks that end in the opposition penalty area, increase their progressive passes and produce more and better chances for the new-look strike pairing. Bellingham, a potentially unstoppable force in a midfield that can also call upon the services of Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga as well as Valverde, Kroos and Modric, will surely play a huge role in this.
隊伍也需要去增加它掌有的控球率，那個讓他們應能組織更多在對手小禁區終結的攻擊，增加他們有壓迫性的傳球與製造更多更好的機會給這組攻擊新面孔。貝林漢姆，這個極具潛力而無可阻擋，能夠向瓊阿梅尼與卡馬文加像巴爾韋德、克羅斯與魔笛一樣提供支援的中場武力，勢必將會在這個陣容扮演更重要的角色。
Ancelotti might have changed his formation for 2023/24, which may well be his last at the club. But the objective for Los Blancos remains the same: to win every trophy available.
安切洛帝可能會在23/24賽季變換陣型，可能是他在俱樂部的最後一次（編注：那個時候還沒續約）。但白衣使者們的目標一如初衷：贏得每一個可能的獎盃。
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